Despite the clearly stated opposition of the German government, there is talk in Berlin of resuming Russian gas imports after the end of the Ukraine war. That would be irresponsible and dangerous from a security and economic policy perspective.

By General Richard Shirreff (Ret.), Andris Piebalgs and Sabrina Schulz  

On February 24, 2022, Germany had to face the consequences of decades of disastrous dependence on Russia. The cheap Russian gas that boosted the German economy ultimately came at a high price as it paved the way for Putin's brutal and illegal war of aggression against Ukraine. 

Since then, this dependence has fallen dramatically, even though Germany continues to buy some gas from Russian sources via the European gas grid.  Nevertheless, a debate is currently underway about the future of the pipeline infrastructure connecting Russia to Europe. As the damaged Nord Stream pipelines can be repaired with relative ease, they have become the subject of growing interest. 

According to press reports, former Stasi officer and Putin confidant Matthias Warnig is negotiating with a consortium of U.S. investors about the commissioning of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline – apparently as part of a Ukraine peace "deal" brokered between the U.S. and Russia. 

This is of particular concern in light of the extension of Swiss insolvency proceedings for Nord Stream 2 AG beyond the legal deadline, which was agreed by the financiers – the German government-owned Uniper and Wintershall Dea, OMV, Engie and Shell. In its decision, the court explicitly referred to the Bundestag elections, "which could probably have a significant impact on the situation of Nord Stream 2 AG."  

The rescheduling of the court decision (to May 9, 2025) suggests that someone somewhere has a reasonable expectation the pipeline may reopen. One theory: sections of the pipes could be used to import green hydrogen from Finland. However, it is also possible that gas imports from Russia will be resumed, possibly thanks to U.S. investors, or through decisions taken on the highest political level in Germany. As was reported in the press, there are voices in both the SPD and the CDU in favour of this. 

Even though both outgoing and incoming German governments have spoken out against the commissioning of Nord Stream 2, any suggestion that the future of the pipeline remains unresolved is playing with fire.  Future Bundestag majorities could once again choose dependence on Russia, not only rendering the German economy hostage but also posing significant security risks for the whole of Europe. 

The new federal government must prevent this before the deadline for the court decision in Switzerland expires by sending a clear political “Stop” signal that Germany does not want the pipeline. Given the changed geopolitical situation, the German government must also reconsider the existing business operating license and unequivocally commit to EU sanctions against Russian pipeline and liquefied gas – even in the face of Hungarian objections. 

Putin would exploit the new dependence again and again 

A return to Russian gas under Putin or another autocrat in the Kremlin would undo the hard-won diversification in Germany's energy supply and make Germany and Europe vulnerable to blackmail again. 

At a time when unity is more crucial than ever to ensure Europe’s security, such a scenario would be fatal. Putin could and would take advantage of the renewed dependence at any time, raising prices or turning off the gas tap, or merely threatening to do so. It would be a veritable invitation to reshape the map of Europe according to his preferences, particularly in the exposed Baltic states. 

The logical consequence for Germany and Europe is a clear “Nein” to Russian gas and a strict strategy aimed at the greatest possible energy sovereignty. This entails shifting energy supply chains to domestic or friendly sources and transitioning industries away from natural gas and towards electricity. Gas imports must continue to be diversified for as long as they are necessary for industrial processes and household heating. 

A move by future German political leaders to again become dependent on Putin or another autocratic Russian leader – it is hard right now to imagine a democratic evolution to a non-threatening Russia – would not only betray the victims of the Russian war of aggression. It would also betray Germany’s and Europe's interests and values, endangering their security, economic stability and strategic autonomy. 

The authors: 

General Sir Richard Shirreff (Ret.) is a former NATO Deputy Supreme Allied Commander Europe.

Andris Piebalgs was EU Energy Commissioner and Latvia’s Ambassador to the EU.  

Sabrina Schulz, Ph.D. is  Germany Director for the European Initiative for Energy Security (EIES).